Intro
Its the final GW of the J1 League season and all to play for at both ends of the table!
I have made the predicted lineups on the PlaySharper app which can be found here:
I have also copy pasted the image of the lineups incase you have difficulty accessing the desktop site.
Important to note the %s used here and where they are not above 75% it is because I feel there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.
I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards.
These are my own opinion of the situation at each team. I try to be as neutral as possible but we all have biases :) So always do your own research when making picks! I may well miss something but a lot of times its due to lack of information where we get "surprise" DNPs. I will also have more info for players I own as a I naturally check those more actively.
Player Suspensions
Fixtures GW320
Its important to note which clubs are playing for something or fighting for safety. The below show a breakdown of this:
Championship
Yokohama FM
Kawasaki
ACL
Hiroshima
C.Osaka
Relegation
Shimizu
Gamba Osaka
Fukuoka
Kyoto
Shonan
Teams who are in midtable eg Nagoya, Kobe, Sagan etc may well experiment more with their teams giving young players a chance.
This is very hard to predict. I personally like to choose players from teams playing for something in my more important teams.
Predicted Lineups
Sapporo vs Shimizu
Sapporo have 8 Covid cases
Trainees spotted training. Sapporo are safe so could be rotating a lot this game
Sugeno was injured last game. According to a recent article, Nakano is more likely to start but I wouldnt risk either if possible
Xavier, Fernandes, Arano, Suga,Aoki, Fukumori, Ogashiwa and Arano seen in training so have best chance to start, though not fully clear.
Kaneko is suspended so def out
Inui is suspended
Kitagawa not seen in training so a doubt for this game
Betting Odds
Kashima vs Gamba
Kashima have nothing to play for so could again give youth players such as Matsumura a chance in the starting X11
Izumi was seen in training at leftback and could start there for the injured Anzai
It has been reported Sun Tae will extend for one more year. The starting keeper situation for next season is unclear and not sure how much Sun Tae will start, his experience coaching & mentoring will be invaluable for Kashima and im happy to see this.
Gamba impressed again last week and I see a very similar lineup in this crunch game
Meshino and Patric both scored from the bench and I see them starting here
Betting Odds
Urawa vs Fukuoka
Sakai is suspended
Urawa are not playing for anything and this is the managers last game in charge. Though I expect him to play a strong team, we cant rule out rotation.
Linssen not seen in training so unlikely to play
After last weeks win and this being a huge game for Fukuoka, I dont see many changes from last weeks X11
Betting Odds
Kashiwa vs Shonan
Douglas not seen in training pics
Kamijima and Toshima Suspended
I expect a similar setup to last week where Shonan were highly impressive. There are no new injury worries I am aware of.
Betting Odds
FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale
Kashif Bangnagande is suspended and Nakamura is the natural replacement.
Tokyo are not playing for anything so some rotation risk. The hint from the manager is he wants to finish on a high note.
I expect the same/similar lineup as the previous game for Kawasaki. Chinen could come in for Kobayashi and Jesiel for Kurumaya however its very hard to judge with confidence for these spots
Damiao is in training - I dont think he will start & likely will be on the bench
Betting Odds
Iwata vs Kyoto
Iwata are already relegated.
There is alot of turmoil at the club with the back office and fans. I would avoid using them as its very difficult to know what kind of team will turn up
Betting Odds
C. Osaka vs Nagoya
Kato & Taggart not seen in training
Msg boards suggest Tameda has picked up an injury
Kitano is getting alot of attention and could get a start
C.Osaka have a slim chance of getting 3rd place so should still play a relatively strong team as they go for the win
Morishita training separately on Wednesday so is questionable for this game
Tiago cant play against his parent club
Betting Odds
Kobe vs Yokohama FM
Kobe are not playing for anything and another team that could bring in some young players like Sasaki, Goke etc
Thuler in training but didnt play last game so unclear if fit enough here
Keeper situation as always is as clear as mud - avoid :)
All players other than Miyachi in full training
A win will get YFM the title. I see them playing the same side as last week which I see as their strongest
Betting Odds
Sagan Tosu vs Hiroshima
Diego seen in training but unclear if fit enough to start
Sagan Tosu have been changing their team alot in recent games as they have nothing to play for and the manager has said he wants to test things out.
There are alot of transfer rumours around Sagan Tosu. In recent years they have been a selling club.
Park IL Gyu is linked with Vissel Kobe
Diego, Nakano and Koizumi are are wanted by several clubs.
Sotiriou back in full training
Hiroshima need only to avoid defeat to guarantee 3rd play. I expect them to play a strong side
Betting Odds
Finish
I hope you found this useful!
In terms of betting odds -Yokohama FM have the best xG odds with 1.92 and Urawa and Kyoto have the best CS odds at 40%
I will personally prioritising players from teams either fighting for safer or the title as this time of the season can see some results that differ a lot from the odds
The golden boot race is also hotly contested. Santana leads the race with Ienaga and Machino just 1 goal behind
Predictions
FC Tokyo 1-2 Kawasaki
Vissel Kobe 1-3 Yokohama FM
Urawa 2-1 Fukuoka
Kashima Antlers 1-1 Gamba Osaka
Iwata 0-2 Kyoto
Kashiwa 1- 2 Shonan
Sapporo 1-1 Shimizu
Which has the final table looking like:
Its very tight and im likely going to be very wrong with my predictions! In any case, its setup to be a fantastic climax to the season and no doubt will see a rollercoaster of emotions all the way the final whistle
As always these are just my own views on the situation based on research for each team.
I will be updating the Discord Channel with any info I see that could prove useful all the way to deadline, so keep a look out for that! Good luck!!
